Half-way into the second year of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, we should have a clearer idea whether the policies of his presidency have had a negative impact on UK visitor numbers to the US.
Trump certainly has not had a positive impact. A Congressional report this year noted international tourism to the US “has slowed” and “the Administration’s focus on immigration enforcement and restriction has led to concerns about a dampening effect on travel”.
The World Travel & Tourism Council suggested in April that the administration needed to “change perception and position the US as a welcoming destination”.
But while overseas visitors to the US in 2025 fell 5.5% on the previous year, numbers from the UK rose 0.5%.
So, the most we can say of UK demand last year is that post-pandemic growth stalled and UK visitor numbers remained 15% down on the 2019 figure of 4.8 million.
Latest US government data shows a further 5% fall in overseas visitors in the five months to May and an 8% fall from Western Europe but a 2.2% decline from the UK.
Strip out business travel and UK leisure visitors were 3% down up to May and 9% down in May itself.
We can rule out the exchange rate as a factor as the current $1.32 to £1 rate is better than last summer, but costs have risen.
The World Cup, alongside 250th anniversary celebrations, was expected to have a positive impact. But early signs were not positive.
In April, a survey by the US Travel Association in key markets concluded:
“Safety has emerged as a top concern among potential visitors. One-third of respondents cited concerns over proposed policies the administration has not implemented.”
An American Hotel & Lodging Association (AHLA) report in May found bookings in host cities well below expectations and accused world football’s governing body FIFA of block-booking too many rooms, leading to artificially high pricing, then cancelling up to 70% of the rooms.
FIFA rejected that, but AHLA members said high ticket prices and transport costs had put visitors off.
The president of the Hotel Association of New York City insisted: “Categorically, we haven’t seen much of a meaningful boost.”
Yet at the start of June hospitality data analyst CoStar upgraded its forecast for the US hotel sector, and in late June it reported host city San Francisco had seen the highest increases in occupancy, daily rate and revenue per room of the top 25 markets in the US.
Fellow host cities Houston and Seattle were second for revenue per room and daily rate, respectively.
Separately, travel booking data analyst Sojern reported the UK had recorded the highest proportion of flight bookings into host cities of all overseas markets.
So, the UK market to the US may be down, but it’s too soon to say for sure given peak summer is still to come.